Posted on October 31, 2008

Keep you heads up – but think

Cash Is King

Dear Valued Readers

NOTE: IM STILL VERY OPTIMISTIC: Keep the entrepreneurial spirit HIGH – its the perfect time to build and start fantastic companies – all the wannabes are gone – and drive can take you anywhere in this depressive finacial climate!!

TO MY POINT: Im not at all into stocks and not an expert (in anything) – but since Im spending most of my time with people at the higher end of the financial latter – I have decided to post the key points I have deciede to believe in – with a in this financial tsunami.

ON THE NEGATIVE

1) The national bailout plans seems to be very good in short term (and thank you to USA for bringing financial socialism back – its great fun to meet with all my ultra literalistic friends) – but be aware that its NOT necessarily a safe solution. It could easily be like peeing in the pants to get warm – since its also subsidizing VERY BAD BANKS that should have been shut down.
(The problem is that you cant see the good from the bad when you legislate troughout a whole sector).

2) Be aware of insane interest rates – since the bonds (behind mortgage loans) around the world that are about to be reissued – probably will have no (or very few) buyers – the interest of these can very likely explode.
*A mortgage loan is a loan secured by real property through the use of a mortgage

3) Be carefull with Bank stocks – I have seen a very clear pattern here in small Denmark – the banks are only calling the midsize trouble clients who have REAL VALUE in their arrangements (say 50% or more in real value) since they:

  • a – get real money out of it
  • b – take only a limited hit on they ballance = yearly reports = their stock.
  • c – they only look moderately stupid

The banks try to do nothing (or areextremly carefull) – or even slightly hide the midsize clients in deep trouble with no real value (lets say a smalltime realesate developer with 2-3 buldings and 100% loan finansing) – since

  • a – get NO money out of it
  • b – take 100% hit on their ballance = yearly reports = stock.
  • c – only ULTIMATELY stupid – and probobly breach the original idea of being a bank.


ON THE POSSITIVE SIDE
Buy compnaies dept (bonds) – they are 50% down in price and pay a fantastic interest – but remember its risky!!

The ba